We’ve had many false dawns in British politics. The Liberals looked like they were going places in the 1970’s until scandal and a highly-publicised trial brought down their leader, Jeremy Thorpe, sending the party back into the political wilderness. The Gang of Four created the SDP in 1981 and there was soon wild speculation that this new party would change the face of British politics and sweep the board but by the 1987 General Election, they had merged with the Liberals, winning only 22 seats; a far cry from the massive gains predicted only a year or so before. The SNP in Scotland seemed for a time to be on track to force another Scottish Independence referendum but a corruption scandal brought down Nicola Sturgeon and her successor Humza Yousaf proved to be lacklustre.
But don’t the two ‘main parties, Labour and the Conservatives, always hold onto power between them, one way or the other? That may well be how it has been but the situation today is rather different to any comparable situation over the last hundred years and multi-party party politics shows every indication of being here to stay. Here is just one possible outcome (and remember that the coalition Conservative/Liberal coalition did work, despite many doubting it would run the course!).
There are many similarities between the Conservative and Reform agendas but there are equally many key differences (not least of which is support for Ukraine). A possible scenario is that should Reform become the largest political party in the next General Election, the Conservatives in coalition could create balance through experience in actual and less extreme policies. But why should we believe that the current situation is any different to past times?
For a start, the current Labour government has a massive majority on an unprecedented low share of electorate (about 20%!). Even in a first-past-the-post system, that kind of scenario cannot be ignored. The fact that Ukip got over 4 million votes in the 2015 general election was a major factor in David Cameron feeling obliged to call a referendum on Brexit, even though Ukip won only two seats! Reform are consistently getting more support today than UKip even did (and winning bi-elections and council elections to prove it!).
Secondly, Reform in particular has not just established an effective electioneering machine but is consistently well funded (as evidenced by the exposure of a recent £5M gift from benefactor in Thailand!). Other parties such as the SNP have shown they can consistently get significant funding, as evidenced by Nicola Sturgeon flying around in a helicopter with her face on it, besides getting a £120,000.00 campaign ‘motor home’! Other parties are here to stay as well. The Green Party seems to be able to reach young people, particularly students, in ways that no other leading party in the UK has managed and they have capitalised on sectarian politics, appealing particular to the Muslim vote by even having electoral flyers printed in Urdu!
You could add that sectarian politics has started to emerge with six M.P’s elected in the last general election as independents from predominantly Muslim areas on a Pro-Palestine ticket, with the Muslim community playing an increasingly important part in UK politics. In short, for better or for worse, things really have changed across the board in the British political arena and there little doubting there will no return to the usual status quo any time soon, if ever again.
With so much change happening, do the Conservatives still have a part to play or should Europe’s oldest and most consistently successful political party now be consigned to history? The blunt fact is that the Conservative party has continuously changed during its history and had it not done, it would not have survived. But has the Conservative changed and learnt from certain mistakes during its last years in office?
The short answer is yes it has and here is just one example. From the time of David Cameron right up the fall of Liz Truss, the party was dominated by Eton school. Cameron and Boris Johnson were both old Etonians, each with a perceived the sense of entitlement; Theresa May could not govern effectively because of the European Research group, led by Etonian Jacob Reece-Mogg and Liz Truss’s infamous budget which crashed the economy was drawn up by Old Etonian Kwasi Kwarteng. Kemi Badenock’s shadow cabinet does not have a single old Etonian in it. The party has certainly has changed!
John Waterhouse