Boris Johnson won a landslide parliamentary majority of 80 seats in December 2019, with over 43% of a vote that was spread around the country including several seats that would have previously been though unwinnable for the Conservatives. Less than five years later, the Conservative Party won less than 24% of the vote, down from 365 to 121 seats; less than a third of Labour’s tally.
The 2024 General Election was more than a massive defeat for the Conservative Party. Many commentators had been predicting less than 100 seats would be won and that the oldest, most successful political party in Europe was on the verge of extinction. This was about a lot than simply winning seats with Conservative party membership in freefall, now said to be less than 100,000 (or to put it another way, less than half that of Reform UK!). With polls continuing to put Reform well ahead of the Conservatives, what is the future for the Conservative Party in June 2025? There can be no question that the Conservative Party has been discredited in recent years, with infighting and scandals producing six leaders within a decade, two of whom ruled the country without ever winning a general election. An impression was given of an inward-looking party without clear direction, largely in the hands of people from privileged backgrounds who felt entitled to rule. But if that has the public impression of recent years, what is the bigger picture now? Here are some basic facts: 1) Labour’s massive share of seats is based on the lowest vote share of a governing party in more than a century – 63% of MPs on 34% share of the vote. 2) Reform UK is, through Nigel Farage, inextricably linked to Donald Trump who continues to have an appalling effect on, inter alia, the world economy, the NATO alliance, Ukraine’s defence against Russia and international relations. 3) The SNP might (for the moment) still be the biggest party in Scotland but it is a dead duck (as Hamilton showed!), having failed the Scottish people. 4) The Conservative Party shadow cabinet is largely cleared of entitled Etonians and is in a genuine position to not just rebuild but to redefine itself. Reform’s support continues to grow but this appears to be largely through disillusionment with the system, rather than any clear, identifiable policies that Reform have put forward. Stopping the boats is more of an aspiration than a policy! Add to this that whilst Reform UK certainly having growing support, they are seen by many as divisive with charges of racism so an outright win for Reform is hardly going to unite the nation. Also, some of their current ideas, such as abolishing the two-child benefit cap, are positively left-wing! Labour’s policies of hammering business are unlikely to generate the growth needed to revitalise the economy and there is nothing being offered by Labour to generate much excitement. With the Conservative Party effectively now having a blank canvas for policy direction coupled with an existing national party machine, this could be one of the most exciting times to become a Conservative as the political map of the country keeps changing. There are many traditional Conservative policies and ideas which perhaps have been to varying degrees disregarded in recent years (love of country & its traditions, family values and incentive for self-betterment to name just three) but they remain at the heart of grassroots Conservative membership and let’s face it, most people are sick of the power of Wokery! Electoral reform is a possibility on the horizon (how can an absolute majority ever be justified on just 20% of the total electorate and only one third of those who actually voted?) and it may be that Conservatives can come to some form of accommodation with Reform (the coalition with the Liberals worked for a whole term after all). The Conservative Party has an opportunity; let us hope we take it! John Waterhouse |